Let’s do this by job title.
On one side of the Kansas gubernatorial gladiatorial arena you have four heavyweights: the secretary of state, the insurance commissioner, the Senate president and a former governor. On the other side you have — two state senators.
That’s how the governor’s race has shaped up, more than a year before anyone in either party casts a single ballot. Republicans have dispatched an array of high-powered officials. Democrats have sent — well, those two state senators. Yet I’m not comfortable saying the GOP has a glide path to Cedar Crest.
Here’s why. Back in 2018, Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach narrowly defeated Gov. Jeff Colyer in the primary and faced off against Democrat Laura Kelly in the general. Kelly won.
And guess what? She was a state senator.
Colyer has returned for another go-round on the Republican side. He faces Secretary of State Scott Schwab, who announced all the way back in January. Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt and Senate President Ty Masterson have followed suit in the last couple of weeks.
As a group, these candidates appear formidable. Each one has a plausible theory of victory. Colyer actually did the job after former Gov. Sam Brownback decamped to serve as the country’s religious freedom ambassador in Trump’s first term. Schwab has built a solid foundation of sane conservatism. Schmidt has proved both moderate and overwhelmingly popular among voters. And Masterson, while not the cuddliest of the candidates, has proved brutally effective in his chamber, occasionally raising hackles among fellow Republicans.
(I acknowledge that others have entered the race as well — my intent here is to focus on the best-known candidates.)
Among Democrats, the volume has proved much lower. Sen. Cindy Holscher was first to announce. She’s been an especially visible communicator among Democrats and worked with sex abuse survivors on important reforms to state law. Sen. Ethan Corson also has been especially visible to constituents and press — I receive regular email invitations to his town halls — and has been a reliable vote for Democratic priorities in his chamber. He also served as Kansas Democrats’ executive director.
Neither Holscher nor Corson have ascended to prominent places in the halls of power. They trail David Toland, the eco-devo wunderkind who serves as both lieutenant governor and commerce secretary. But Toland decided not to pursue the crown for himself.
That leaves Democrats searching for a new leader, one from a decidedly shallow bench.
Kelly has proved over the years that she possess exceptional political talents. She does not strike voters as an extremist. She aligns with Democratic orthodoxy on most issues but manages to appear moderate and sensible no matter the national propaganda spurting from one rightwing outlet or another. Watching her these past seven years has been much like watching Evel Knievel soar above a line of school buses, effortlessly flipping the motorcycle all the while.
Will Holscher or Corson show the same political adeptness as they navigate through the coming months? I’m not sure. Each will have to expand their message beyond the comfortable confines of Johnson County to the whole state. That means answering tough questions on social issues while not alienating the activists they’ll need to knock doors down the road.
For the Republicans, any one of the four could prevail, depending on the coming months.
If the three men train their fire on one another, Schmidt might squeak through thanks to the votes of moderates who once supported Kelly. If those votes have been lost to Democrats permanently — and I wouldn’t be surprised if they have — I could see Schwab or Colyer pushing through to the general election. Masterson, to my eyes, has the most difficult path: He’s a legislative wrangler who throws elbows, and that doesn’t always appeal to the general public.
Overall, Kelly’s two terms provide the context. As one of the nation’s most popular governors, and a Democrat repeatedly elected in an red state, she’s proven the appeal of moderation. Corson, Holscher, Schmidt and Schwab (to a much lesser extent) all could carry that mantle into the election and beyond.
I don’t see a Kelly among them, though. Not yet.
Clay Wirestone is Kansas Reflector opinion editor. Through its opinion section, Kansas Reflector works to amplify the voices of people who are affected by public policies or excluded from public debate. Find information, including how to submit your own commentary, here.
