The U.S. beef industry is poised for another year of strong market performance, driven by tight cattle supplies and robust consumer demand, CattleFax analysts told those in attendance at their annual outlook seminar held yesterday during CattleCon 2025. As the beef cowherd enters a stabilization phase, the resulting supply constraints have shifted market leverage decisively in favor of cattle producers.

Mike Murphy, CattleFax chief operating officer, forecasted the average 2025 fed steer price at $198/cwt., up $12/cwt. from 2024. He said all cattle classes are expected to trade higher and continue on an upward trend. Feeder steer prices are projected to average $270/cwt. for those weighing 800 lbs. and $340/cwt. for 550 lb. steers.

Overall, analysts gave a positive outlook for the coming months and noted that strong margins in the cow-calf sector have set the stage for cowherd expansion to begin, with heifer retention likely back near a more normal pace. Drought and pasture conditions will be the key factors influencing the rate of expansion, with a slower herd rebuild anticipated compared to the last cycle. This more measured expansion pace implies a positive outlook for producer returns over the next several years, said CattleFax Chief Executive Officer Randy Blach.